Identifying the Dimensions and Components of the Institutionalization Model of Futures Studies in the Education System with a Focus on Crisis Management (Case Study: Mashhad County Education System)

Abstract

Futures studies aim to predict and enhance development and improvement in probable and possible futures by utilizing the analysis of the current situation, identifying mechanisms of change, and defining various scenarios. Crisis management plays a significant role in controlling situations and confronting crises in education. Therefore, this study was conducted to design a futures studies model with a focus on crisis management in the education system. The research method was mixed-methods (qualitative-quantitative) with an emphasis on structural equation modeling. The statistical population in the qualitative phase consisted of 29 experts and specialists selected through purposive (snowball) sampling. In the quantitative phase, the population included all employees of the Mashhad education system (15,000 individuals), from whom a sample of 450 was selected using Cochran’s formula and proportional stratified sampling. The research instrument was a researcher-developed questionnaire with a Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.996. The face and content validity of the questionnaire were confirmed by experts. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS and PLS software. Among the dimensions of futures studies, the leadership, creativity and innovation, and environmental awareness dimensions were found to be of greater importance and ranked higher than other dimensions (coefficients: 0.617, 0.660, 0.735, respectively). Among the crisis management dimensions, the response and prevention dimensions (coefficients: 0.753, 0.570) had the highest impact in the education system model. The proposed model demonstrated a good fit, and ultimately, the establishment of a futures studies desk focusing on crisis management is recommended. This initiative aims to determine strategies across all domains and stakeholders by leveraging all local, national, regional, and international capacities for a desirable future in education.