پیش‌بینی‌کننده‌های اجتماعی گرایش به نزاع‌های خیابانی در میان شهروندان شهر شیراز

عدالت  حقیقی; بهبود خادمی; ثمینه  بهادری جهرمی

Authors

Edalat Haghighi PhD Student, Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Humanities (Political Sociology), SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Jahrom, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6108-8710
Behbood Khademi Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Neyriz, Iran. Corresponding author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3078-3347
Samineh Bahadori Jahromi Assistant Professor, Department of Social Sciences, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Jahrom, Iran. Author https://orcid.org/0009-0006-7468-868X

Keywords:

Street violence, Social capital, Social anomie, Social support, Multiple regression, Shiraz

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the predictive power of protective and risk-related social factors for street violence tendency among citizens of Shiraz. This descriptive-correlational study employed a cross-sectional survey design. The statistical population comprised all citizens aged over 18 years residing in Shiraz, from whom 384 participants were selected using proportionate stratified random sampling across the municipal districts. Data were collected using a composite questionnaire consisting of standardized and researcher-developed measures. Content validity was confirmed by experts in sociology and criminology, and Cronbach’s alpha coefficients ranged from 0.72 to 0.91. Data were analyzed in SPSS using Pearson correlation coefficients, independent-samples t-tests, and hierarchical multiple regression at a significance level of 0.05. Pearson correlation analysis showed that family control (r=-0.46), social cohesion (r=-0.44), social capital (r=-0.53), and social support (r=-0.47) were significantly and negatively associated with street violence tendency, whereas social anomie (r=0.52) and poor social skills (r=0.47) demonstrated significant positive associations (p<0.01). Age was also negatively correlated with street violence tendency (r=-0.41). Independent-samples t-tests indicated significantly greater street violence tendency among men and unmarried participants. Demographic variables explained 14% of the variance in street violence tendency, while the final hierarchical regression model, after inclusion of the social variables, explained 52% of the variance. Social anomie (β=0.34) and poor social skills (β=0.31) were the strongest positive predictors, whereas age (β=-0.28) and social capital (β=-0.23) were the strongest negative predictors. Family control (β=-0.21), social support (β=-0.20), and social cohesion (β=-0.19) also exerted significant negative predictive effects. Street violence tendency appears to be shaped by the simultaneous contribution of social risk, protective, and demographic factors; therefore, multidimensional preventive strategies aimed at reducing social anomie, strengthening social capital and family control, improving social support and cohesion, and enhancing conflict-resolution and social skills may contribute to reducing urban violence.

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